There are many in the US and around the world who will tell you to ignore the ‘Mainstream Media’, or ‘MSM’ as conspiracy theorists are prone to calling newspapers these days, and take it as read that contrary to pretty much all the polls, Donald Trump will become 45th President.
Oversampling of Democrats is often cited as the reason for Hillary Clinton’s supposedly skewed numbers, with respected polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight.com giving the former First Lady a 68.1 per cent chance of winning on Tuesday.
It’s true that voters promising to back Trump are tougher to seek out than those supporting Clinton, with the former expected to do better among rural communities that have been left behind during the recent decades of globalisation.
The GOP candidate has talked of a ‘lot of Brexit happening’ on November 8th, in reference to Britain’s largely-unpredicted ‘Out’ vote during June’s referendum to leave the EU, which has rocked the UK political establishment.
Believers in Trump can get on the 70-year-old property tycoon-cum-reality TV star at 4/1 with just hours to go until polling day, while Clinton breaking the glass ceiling to become the first woman POTUS holds little value at 9/50.
The betting has the Democratic candidate at 3/4 to take North Carolina and just 1/5 to mop up in Nevada. If she does, the electoral-college vote margin in her favour could be greater than President Barack Obama’s over Mitt Romney four years ago.
Suggestions in recent days that Michigan could be tight sound silly given the Great Lakes State has gone blue since 1992, with 17/100 about the Democrats taking it again backing up the theory that Trump’s recent visits amount to nothing more than a ‘head fake’.
The latest electoral-college vote handicap line is Clinton -99.5 at 11/10 and Trump +99.5 at 67/100, with FiveThirtyEight currently giving the former a lead of around 55.